Prediction of China outbound tourism industry in 2018

2017 travel market trend showed a weak recovery of China outbound Tourism: according to the statistics released by the National Tourism Administration shows that the first half of 2017, the number of China outbound tourism reached 62 million 30 thousand passengers, 59 million 30 thousand passengers over the previous year growth of 5.1%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the same period last year.

 

The short-term destination of Hongkong, Macao and mainland tourists travel gradually pick up, including Hongkong (1-9 months) and Macao (1-10) increased by 2.46% and 6.98% compared to the same period last year, -8.73% and -0.38% are obviously improved; South Korea diplomatic storm and thad Northeast Asia geopolitical turmoil, the first half of the year fell 48.80%; Thailand by the end of 16 to early 17, to rectify the “zero negative membership fee”, recovery visa fee, king of Thailand died of multiple factors such as shadow, China visitors in the first half of negative growth, but in recent months has achieved normalization.

Long-term destinations, travel to Europe by signing the violent terrorist attacks and fingerprint after low base background in 2016, the year 2017 showed a relatively apparent recovery trend: according to the trend of tourism and travel Ctrip Institute “2017 Chinese report” to Europe, 2017 people travel to Europe grew by 65% in the first half year, including with the tour group to achieve a high growth of 81%, to travel with the group growth doubled, the growth rate reached 103%. In the third quarter, China outbound travel to Europe continued to achieve an increase of 29% compared with the increase in the background of the high base area, with 36% growth in group tours and 33% increase in destination and group tours.

 

In 2016, the per capita GDP in China reached 54 thousand yuan, and the disposable income of the residents was 34 thousand yuan, and it had entered the outbreak stage of outbound travel. In the major developed countries and regions in the Asia Pacific region, China outbound tourism penetration is still at a low level.

The historical experience of Japan and South Korea shows that outbound travel is closely related to the economic growth of the country, and there is a significant increase in the per capita GDP span of 8000-10000 US dollars. Meanwhile, the number of passport holders in China is 120 million, which accounts for only 8.6% of the total population, while the number of passport holders in the United States accounts for 30% of the total population. 75% in the UK and 60% in Canada, the increase in the amount of passport ownership in the future will also lead to the growth of outbound tourists. In the long run, outbound Chinese tourism, as an optional consumption, will benefit from the increase in domestic economic growth and the level of residents’ income.

 

The visa policy has been gradually relaxed. With the improvement of China’s comprehensive national strength, economic strength and national purchasing power, more and more countries have opened a visa free / landing sign for Chinese passport holders. As of July 11th, 65 countries and regions that Chinese citizens can enjoy the convenience of entry with ordinary passports have increased. It includes 10 passport free visa countries, 16 unilaterally allowing Chinese visitors to enter the country without permission, and 39 unilaterally allowing Chinese citizens to visas visas. Serbia and Montenegro in Europe have also begun to avoid visas to China.

 

Since 2014, more than 12 countries have changed the visa rules and encouraged Chinese tourists to come to travel. The impact is huge. In the 6 months after the relaxation of visa requirements, the number of Chinese tourists increased by 378% in Morocco, Moldova increased by 253%, Tunisia increased by 240%, Serbia increased by 180%, Israel increased by 57%, Peru increased by 56%, Chile increased by 49%.

 

From the growth performance of the following visa policy to relax after, we expect more countries to actively release Chinese visa good future, new more relaxed passport visa policy policy, ranking will further enhance China’s national conditions to create a more convenient.

 

Visitors to Europe achieved a year-on-year growth of 80% and 77% in the second tier cities and four tier cities. The market share of two or three tier cities reached 50% in the first half of the year, and the second tier cities accounted for 80% of the total European outbound travel market. As far as growth is concerned, the growth of the 234 line cities is far higher than the growth of the first tier cities. It shows the momentum of the transfer of cities to the second line of new and new cities, represented by the “north and Guangzhou”.

 

On the whole, the outbound China tourism are sinking rapidly to the two or three tier cities. They currently contribute the largest number of new customers to China outbound tourism in 2018, and their consumption capacity has been comparable to those of the first tier cities.

 

In the context of the overall demand for outbound travel, short-term outbound travel is expected to maintain a weak recovery market.This is the prediction of China outbound tourism in 2018.

 

1) European tourism: in the absence of special political events, the recovery trend is expected to continue in 18 years. However, the growth rate will probably decrease in a relatively high base.

2) Japan and South Korea: Recently, the State Council released the approval of the State Council on Approving the establishment of the Sino Korean Industrial Park, and agreed to set up the Sino Korean Industrial Park in Yancheng City, Shandong, Yantai and Guangdong Huizhou, Jiangsu respectively. This is a sign of the gradual thawing of Sino Korean relations. With the future of the gradual warming of relations between China and Korea, travel to Korea is expected to recover, in the low base and the Winter Olympics in Pingchang under the background of 18 years of South Korea is expected to achieve recovery growth; and the Japanese government to relax visa policy arrangements in May 8th this year, is expected to promote the tour resumed growth next year;

3) South East Asia, in the first half of the 17 year relatively low base, the Thailand tour is expected to achieve a restorative growth;

4) emerging destinations,with the benefit and the influx of visa policy in 2018 the world cup spectators fans tourists to relax, go to Russia travel is expected to achieve rapid growth significantly; at the same time in the “push and tourism” and related policy easing, Canada travel is expected to grow rapidly.

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